Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 are coming out this fall. Many developers are rushing into Windows 8 apps development. It seems like a gold mine, a big market for developers with hundreds of millions of PCs are going to install W8.

Is that really the case? Should iOS/Android developers rush to this new platform. At this point app developers may ask these three questions:

  • How large is the user base?
  • How likely is to get downloaded? Is there a competition?
  • Would developing apps be profitable? (return of investment)

No doubt, in one or two years, there will be hundreds of millions of W8 PCs and tablets on the market. This is a huge potential Microsoft achieved a decade ago. And no doubt, it will be much successful than Windows Phone 7.

I guarantee you there is no competition at all in the Windows 8 apps market at this moment. Whatever you are going to do probably the first of its kind and if it is useful software, you will hit a really good number of downloads.

Here’s the deal, what if someone tells you there is a new platform coming out with hundreds of millions of users, but these users don’t use apps very much and they don’t love to pay for software so much.

This is the exact situation Windows 8 market is right now.

  • Developers were already selling Windows programs for years. This is not something new. Recall Mac App Store, launched 2 years ago and most of the OS X app developers still sell on their websites. Is Windows 8 user going to hang around app market or search the web for a free alternative?

  • Think about the average user. Which apps would you install on your PC? So many people don’t even download apps on their iPhones and Androids. Why would old Windows users do?

  • Windows is around for at least a decade. So if you are planning to build a todo list app, diet calculator or finance stocks widget, it was probably done years ago. There are millions of Windows free programs.

  • How many “apps” do you use on your desktop besides your browser? Which apps exactly would you need instead of the web-based alternatives?

  • I know so many Microsoft employees using Windows Phone 7 haven’t purchased a single app yet. Why would other people do, especially a desktop app, where there are probably many free alternatives out there for free?

  • Most of iOS users are in the US, Apple is not fighting with piracy. Most of Windows users are outside the US, and Microsoft is heavily fighting with piracy. This is something to consider if you are going to sell a paid app.

Right now, anything is possible at Microsoft developer ecosystem. Windows Phone 7 didn’t take off, but Windows 8 certainly will.

The question is, should a self-employed developer or an apps company pursue for Windows 8 PCs and tablets OR iOS/Android market, where people at least purchase something?

Recall a few the breakthrough products or apps came out in last a few years. Would people love to use them on their W8 PCs or tablets?

Maybe Windows 8 is going to prove I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong.

Disclosure: These are my own opinions and have nothing to do with my employer whatsoever.